Europe’s economy just did something it hasn’t managed since February: grow. The flash S&P Global Eurozone Composite PMI Output Index climbed to 51.9 in July, up from June’s perfectly neutral 50.0 reading. That’s a meaningful beat against the roughly 50.3 consensus forecast compiled by Reuters, and it marks the first expansion in private-sector business activity after four consecutive months of decline.
For context, anything above 50 signals expansion in PMI land. Anything below signals contraction. Sitting exactly at 50.0 in June was the economic equivalent of treading water.
Services lead, manufacturing holds
The services sector did the heavy lifting, recording substantial growth that pulled the composite number into expansion territory. Manufacturing, meanwhile, showed resilience rather than outright strength. Easing cost pressures across both sectors helped, giving businesses room to breathe after months of margin compression. New orders picked up meaningfully, which is arguably the most forward-looking component of the data.
The survey was conducted and released on July 24 by S&P Global under its HCOB branding. Flash readings are preliminary, based on roughly 85% of total survey responses, so the final number could shift slightly.
