Mexico can turn USMCA pressure into an industrial opportunity

Econographics

July 23, 2026 • 2:53 pm ET

Ernesto Stein, Phil Lovegren

When US President Donald Trump imposed a series of tariffs on Mexico in the early months of 2025, citing fentanyl trafficking and illegal immigration across the border as the primary justification, few analysts would have predicted that Mexican exports to the US would increase. Yet a year later, that is exactly what has happened.

Although the US slapped 25 percent tariffs on exports that did not comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and additional tariffs on Mexico’s auto, steel, and aluminum sector regardless of origin status, Mexican exports to the US are booming. In fact, they reached an all-time high of $545 billion in 2025, according to US Census data—an increase of 5.8 percent over 2024.