Two weeks into a renewed bombing campaign against Iran, with US forces taking casualties and allies wary of the conflict escalating further, President Donald Trump insists that Iran is “desperate” to find an end to wave after wave of US attacks.
But both the CIA and the Defense Intelligence Agency have recently assessed that the kind of bombing the US is currently carrying out is unlikely to shift the Iranian negotiating position, according to two US officials familiar with the assessments.
At the same time, the key mediator between the two sides — Qatar — threatened to walk away from the table after Iran struck a Qatari tanker earlier this month, in what would amount to a devastating and possibly irreplaceable loss for diplomatic efforts, according to a current and a former US official.
The Strait of Hormuz, a vital economic lifeline that was freely navigated by an armada of ships daily before the war, remains largely vacant after Iran insisted on authority to control traffic, enforcing their power with sporadic drone and threats of mines.
That confluence of events has left Trump, whose party is staring down potentially devastating midterm election losses in November, with few good options.
