US Secretary of State Marco Rubio sat down with Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov on the sidelines of the ASEAN Foreign Ministers’ Meeting in Manila on July 23, confirming that the United States remains willing to play a “constructive role” in bringing the Ukraine war to a close. The conflict is now in its fifth year, and while diplomatic language was cautiously optimistic, the betting markets tell a different story.
Polymarket, the crypto-native prediction platform, currently prices the odds of a Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026 at roughly 25%. That market has attracted over $14.5 million in trading volume.
What happened in Manila
Lavrov reportedly stated that any further arms deliveries to Ukraine remain unacceptable to Moscow, a position that has been a consistent dealbreaker in prior rounds of negotiation.
Rubio, for his part, struck a measured tone. The “constructive role” framing is deliberately open-ended, suggesting the US wants to facilitate rather than dictate terms.
