https://www.jonesday.com/en/insights/2025/07/us-house-passes-genius-and-clarity-acts-signaling-bipartisan-support-for-digital-assets
The release of a new draft crypto bill by Republicans has led to a decrease in the odds of the Clarity Act being passed into law in 2026. The Clarity Act, a comprehensive 616-page proposal aimed at reshaping federal oversight of digital assets, is facing renewed uncertainty as it requires bipartisan support to advance. The recent draft, circulated by Republicans, lacks Democratic endorsement, contributing to a decline in market confidence. Prediction markets, such as Polymarket, have shown a sharp drop in passage odds, which were around the low-30% range in mid-July. The market’s current pricing indicates a 38.5% likelihood of the Clarity Act becoming law by the end of the year, down from 48% just 24 hours prior.
Key Takeaways
Recent developments suggest a setback for the Clarity Act’s progress, with odds decreasing after the release of a new Republican draft.
The requirement for bipartisan support and the absence of Democratic backing appear to be major hurdles for the bill’s passage.
