Money is pouring into European natural gas bets at a pace not seen since bombs started falling on Iran. Investment funds and speculators boosted their net-long positions in European gas futures by 36% in the week ending July 17, 2026, the sharpest weekly increase since the US-Iran conflict intensified earlier this year.
The TTF benchmark, Europe’s key natural gas pricing contract, climbed above €60/MWh in mid-July, hitting a four-month high.
What’s driving the surge
The US and Israel launched strikes on Iran beginning in late February and early March of 2026. Renewed hostilities in July reignited supply fears across global energy markets. The conflict has disrupted LNG flows, particularly from Qatar, which sits uncomfortably close to the theater of operations and serves as a critical supplier to European buyers. Attacks on critical infrastructure and a considerable decline in tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz have compounded the disruption.
The continent, having mostly ceased importing Russian gas since 2022, is now facing pressure on storage levels as demand for LNG increases.
