The forecast for 2026 global oil demand has been trimmed by a further 155,000 barrels per day, lowering full-year demand to 103.75 million b/d — a contraction of 590,000 b/d against 2025. In sum, the Mideast Gulf crisis has led to a cumulative reduction in demand growth of nearly 1.5 million b/d compared with the prewar forecast in February.