‘The Demographic Futures Survey shows how population data can and must be deployed to help countries understand, plan for and adapt to demographic shifts’

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Ask a grandmother in India what has changed since her time, and she will not talk to you about fertility rates. She will talk about her granddaughter, who finished college, has a city job, and is in no hurry to start a family. She will say it with pride and concern in the same breath, a blend the data reflects too.The UNFPA surveyOn World Population Day this year (July 11), UNFPA released the Demographic Futures Survey, the largest study of its kind, with over 1,08,000 young adults surveyed across 73 countries. It asked a simple question: not whether young people still wanted partnership and family, but what stood between them and it. (This year, India’s Ministry of Health and Family Welfare set the theme, “Healthy Timing and Spacing of Pregnancies” or HTSP, a reminder that at the heart of every demographic number is a question of choice: whether young people can decide, freely and on their own timeline, when and how to build their families.)India’s fertility rate has settled at two children per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1. Some will hear that and reach for words like “baby bust” or “population crisis”. At UNFPA, we see something else entirely. This is not a warning sign but the outcome of sustained government investment across decades, in girls’ education, the National Health Mission, and expanding contraceptive choice and maternal health services. The share of young women married before 18 years has fallen from 23.3% to 20.1% in just the last few years. That is a policy achievement India’s institutions can rightly take credit for.But numbers tell more than one story at once, and if we stop at the good news, we miss what young India is trying to say.Ask young people directly, and most want what generations before them wanted. Across the country, four in 10 women and a third of men say that two children is their ideal family size. The Demographic Futures Survey found the same pattern across countries: young people are not turning away from family life; they are asking whether the conditions exist to build it. So why the hesitation here? When we ask young couples what stands between them and the life they picture, the answers are almost always practical. Money comes first, cited by nearly four in 10. Then housing. Then job security. Then a very simple, human worry: how well can we care for our children?That last question falls on one set of shoulders far more than another. Young women in India spend over five hours a day on unpaid housework and caregiving; young men spend about half an hour. Only 15 in every 100 young women are in paid work, compared to 55 in every 100 young men. These are not merely statistics. They help explain why so many capable young women feel that they must choose between a career and a family, when no one should have to choose at all.The climate change issueThere is a newer worry layered on top of the old ones. The survey found that nearly all young people say climate change is disrupting their lives, and about half say it affects their peace of mind. Nearly half of young Indians also report being very worried about conflict, economic insecurity and environmental risk all at once, among the higher rates recorded anywhere. Add high youth unemployment and a mental health conversation that is only beginning in many Indian households, and a fuller picture emerges. This is not a generation rejecting parenthood. It is a generation asking, quite reasonably, whether the ground beneath it is steady enough to build on.India is also marked by inter-State disparity. Bihar’s fertility rate stands at 2.7, while Sikkim’s is just 1.0. Kerala, Delhi and Tamil Nadu have long settled below the replacement level, while Bihar, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand are still catching up. These differences show that India’s demographic transition is unfolding at different speeds across States, and that no single national policy can fully address every State’s realities.Responding to youth aspirationThe UNFPA’s partnership with the Indian government and communities is aimed at translating what young people are telling us into practical support: high-quality, affordable and accessible childcare; families that share caregiving more equally; continued investment in stable, dignified work for young people entering the labour force; and greater attention to youth mental health, including climate anxiety, in conversations about family and the future. The private sector also has a vital role to play through parental leave, flexible work arrangements and family-friendly workplaces that enable young people to balance work and caregiving. The UNFPA has a unique role in the United Nations development system as a leader in data collection, population dynamics and evidence-based policymaking. The Demographic Futures Survey shows how population data can and must be deployed to help countries understand, plan for and adapt to demographic shifts.India is home to 255 million young people aged 15 to 24 years, the largest generation this country, or perhaps any country, has ever raised. This is India’s demographic dividend, a window of opportunity that will not remain open indefinitely. The choices we make today will determine whether this generation can fully realise its potential before that window begins to close. Young Indians are not walking away from the idea of family. They are waiting for the conditions that would let them say yes to it fully.Andrea M. Wojnar is UNFPA Representative in India and part of Team UN in India Published - July 22, 2026 12:08 am IST