Reading Time: 4 minutesBRASÍLIA—For almost a decade, Brazil’s establishment has been predicting the imminent fall of the House of Bolsonaro. During the 2018 campaign, they insisted Jair Bolsonaro was too extreme, too tosco (uncouth), to ever be elected president. During his four years in office, as scandals and then the pandemic wreaked havoc, they insisted impeachment was always just around the corner. After Bolsonaro lost the 2022 election by two percentage points, and was imprisoned for trying to overturn the result, many said the family would never sniff power again.
Through it all, the family has proven their skeptics wrong—and retained their primacy as the leading conservative brand in Brazilian politics, much as their ally Donald Trump did during his four years out of power. But with the World Cup now over, and Brazil’s attention turning fully to the October 4 presidential election, the Bolsonaros have never looked more vulnerable than they do today. Already reeling from scandal and an embarrassing intra-family feud, last week’s announcement of new 25% tariffs on Brazil by the Trump administration may prove to be the definitive blow that knocks the family from their perch and delivers another term to President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
