Oil prices do not spike 45% in six months without a very good reason. The reason, in this case, is a shooting war between the United States and Iran, and its direct threat to the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply passes every day.
Brent crude futures briefly crossed $91 per barrel on July 20, 2026, before settling back into the $88-$89 range.
What actually happened
The immediate catalyst was a combination of US military strikes on Iran, reported to have spanned nine days, and Iranian threats to disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
WTI crude, the US benchmark, crossed $84 per barrel before pulling back to the $81-$83 range. Both benchmarks recorded gains of more than 15% in the single week leading up to July 20.
