On Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction platform, Nvidia holds a 61% probability of maintaining its position as the largest company by market capitalization through the end of December 2026. Apple trails at 23.5%, with Alphabet rounding out the top three at 11%.
A brief throne swap
On July 17, Apple’s market cap surged to approximately $4.88 trillion, briefly overtaking Nvidia’s $4.86 trillion valuation. For a moment, the iPhone maker reclaimed a title it hadn’t held since Nvidia’s AI-fueled ascent.
Apple’s stock has actually outperformed Nvidia on a year-to-date basis in 2026, posting gains of around 22.5% compared to Nvidia’s roughly 10%. But Polymarket bettors are clearly betting that short-term momentum and long-term structural dominance are two very different things.
The market for “Largest Company end of December 2026” has attracted over $4.5 million in trading volume.
