Iran’s killing of three additional U.S. service members has crossed a red line President Donald Trump has repeatedly drawn, forcing him to decide whether to escalate the existing campaign or take the far riskier step of expanding the conflict.Over the weekend, first Lt. Tyler James Feehan of Hawaii and Pvt. Isabella Gonzales of Texas were killed in an Iranian attack on America’s Muwaffaq Salit Air Base in Jordan. A third service member was killed in Iraq by the “controlled detonation” of an Iranian drone. The latest casualties increase the total number of U.S. service members killed in action during the war to 17.
Trump said Sunday’s strikes against Iranian targets were intended to honor the fallen service members, but they did not appear to represent a shift in U.S. strategy. The U.S. has bombed Iran for nine consecutive days following the collapse of peace talks earlier this month. The administration, however, has steadily expanded its pressure campaign and kept its options open. U.S. Central Command said Monday that it had redirected seven commercial vessels and boarded and seized another to prevent ships from entering or leaving Iranian ports. The Pentagon is also reportedly reinforcing the region with additional F-16s from Germany, F-35s from the United Kingdom, and aerial refueling aircraft, according to the New York Times.Trump has also reportedly reviewed military options that include seizing Kharg Island, Iran’s primary oil export terminal near the Strait of Hormuz, or other strategic targets. Yet despite the increasingly aggressive military campaign, former Trump administration officials remain skeptical that the president is preparing for a large-scale ground invasion.“I could, maybe, see the U.S. seizing Kharg Island to put even more pressure on Tehran, but we don’t need to go full force to seize the enriched uranium,” one former official told the Washington Examiner. “That’s already inaccessible thanks to Operation Midnight Hammer.”A second former Trump White House official told the Washington Examiner that “the president has always felt that he’s been in the driver’s seat, despite letting others whom he trusts take the wheel from time to time.”“I think he thinks Iran fears him most, and therefore he’s going to be more invested in this new escalation,” the person suggested. “I think the war has gone on long enough that the trial and error period is over, and they feel pretty good about where they’re at today in terms of hitting Iran hard and finishing the job.”Not everyone agrees that additional military pressure will produce a better outcome.Jennifer Kavanagh, the director of military analysis for Defense Priorities, claimed the conflict has already become a strategic setback for Washington and warned that expanding it further would only increase the costs.“More bombing cannot take away Iran’s geographic advantages or eliminate its ability to strike ships passing through the maritime chokepoint,” she said. “It also will not convince Iran’s new leadership to back down from what they see as an existential war,” she continued.Kavanagh claimed that Trump has only “two viable options” at his disposal, both of which are preferable to escalating the fighting and endangering more American soldiers: “Make a deal that recognizes that the balance of power in the region has shifted in Iran’s favor, or he can walk away and let the region and the international community manage the war’s fallout.”Despite the expanding military campaign, Trump has continued to suggest the door to diplomacy remains open.Kian Tajbakhsh, an Iranian American scholar previously imprisoned in Iran, told the Washington Examiner that if the administration wants negotiations to succeed, it should overhaul the team leading talks with Tehran.Vice President JD “Vance should not go anywhere near the Iranians. He is way over his head. He is out of his depth,” he said. “Put Rubio in charge. … It’s Rubio who has made the argument that this is about the freedom of navigation as the arteries of world commerce on which American national interest relies.”TRUMP RETURNS TO WAR WITH IRAN FROM ‘POSITION OF STRENGTH’Shirvin Zeinalzadeh, an expert in Iran at Arizona State University’s School of Politics and Global Studies, said the renewed fighting with Iran provided Trump an opportunity to make his case directly to the people about what comes next.“We’re all feeling the pinch, and this is an ideal time now for the president to say, ‘This is the reality. This is what we’ve been saying, but this is where we actually stand now,’ rather than just repeating what we’ve heard before,” Zeinalzadeh said.
