The United States is reportedly gearing up for the next phase of its military campaign against Iran, as reported by i24 News, which cites an Israeli security source. This development comes amidst ongoing tensions in the 2026 Iran war, marked by previous U.S. airstrikes under Operation Epic Fury that killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. The conflict has intensified recently with the collapse of a ceasefire and sustained U.S. military operations targeting Iranian sites. The deployment of U.S. military assets, including aircraft carriers USS Abraham Lincoln and USS Gerald Ford, suggests an escalation beyond mere retaliation, hinting at sustained offensive operations.
Market participants appear to interpret these developments as reducing the likelihood of a diplomatic resolution between the U.S. and Iran, particularly one that includes provisions for Iran Reconstruction Funding. Current market pricing reflects a decreased probability of such funding being part of a U.S.-Iran deal in 2026, with YES outcomes seeing a notable decline.
Key Takeaways
The reported U.S. military preparations against Iran suggest increased tensions, consistent with a decreased likelihood of diplomatic resolutions.
