Disconnect Between Crude and Crack SpreadsLamarre, co-founder of the International Digital Exchange (INDEX), attributes this to a fundamental divergence: "This looks more like a temporary crude surplus running into a genuinely separate product shortage, rather than tight refining capacity dragging crude prices up with it."Consequently, Lamarre cautions against using broad commodity funds to trade the refining crunch: "I wouldn’t lean too hard on the refining story as a support factor for something like USO or BNO specifically."The Case for Individual RefinersFurthermore, Lamarre and Bitunix analyst Dean Chen warn that futures-based ETFs face contango risks that can “quietly eat into returns” through “negative roll costs.” Lamarre emphasizes USO and BNO are “tactical vehicles right now, not buy-and-forget.”Lamarre’s Crude Price ScenariosEmphasizing a wide-band outlook over tight forecasts, Lamarre outlines four crude scenarios:
Baseline Range: Brent $80–$100 and WTI $76–$95.
Near-Term Escalation: If Hormuz disruptions hold, Brent could test $100 and WTI mid-$90s.
Full Chokepoint Closure: A total Strait shutdown could push crude to $110–$120.
De-escalation: Normalizing flows could ease Brent to $75–$90 and WTI to $70–$85.
