Meta Platforms just told investors it plans to spend between $125 billion and $145 billion on capital expenditures in 2026. Most of that money is flowing into AI infrastructure, including data centers and GPUs. The number is staggering on its own, but it lands differently when you remember what happened the last time Meta went all-in on a big technology bet.
The company’s Q1 2026 earnings report showed revenue of $56 billion, a 33% jump year-over-year. Morningstar has slapped a High Uncertainty Rating on Meta, and the core question haunting the stock is straightforward: will any of this spending actually generate returns that justify the price tag?
The metaverse ghost still lingers
Meta’s cumulative metaverse spending has surpassed $83 billion since 2022. The returns from that initiative have been minimal. Reality Labs continues to operate as a money furnace, and investors who watched those billions evaporate have understandable trust issues when the company asks them to believe in the next massive capital deployment cycle.
Mark Zuckerberg has described conversations about return on investment as “very technical.” His framing emphasizes a long-term commitment to building advanced AI models that could cement Meta’s dominance.
