The US economy is still growing its industrial base, just not as fast as it used to. Federal Reserve data released June 15, 2026, showed industrial production rose 1.7% year over year in May, a modest improvement from April’s 1.4% reading.
Growth was sitting closer to 2% earlier this year. Now it’s drifting lower, and the month-over-month numbers make the picture even clearer: output rose just 0.1% in May after a 0.9% jump in April.
What the numbers are actually telling us
The index itself, benchmarked to 2017 as 100, hit 102.6 in May 2026. Capacity utilization came in at 76.2% in May, sitting 3.2 percentage points below the long-run historical average stretching back to 1972. American factories and industrial facilities have significantly more room to run than they currently are.
The next data release is scheduled for July 17, 2026, covering June’s performance. Consensus forecasts are pointing toward a 1.5% year-over-year increase, which would represent another step down from May’s 1.7% reading if that estimate holds.
