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Australia is set to terminate its 50% capital gains tax (CGT) discount for crypto assets by July 2027, shifting instead to a model of cost base indexation with a 30% minimum tax on real gains. This legislative change, passed by the Australian Parliament in June 2026, will impact individuals, trusts, and partnerships holding crypto assets. The reform, significant as the first major adjustment to Australia’s CGT system in over two decades, aims to tax only inflation-adjusted gains. Market participants are evaluating the implications of this change, particularly how it might affect investment strategies and asset prices in the lead-up to its implementation.
In the prediction markets, the forthcoming tax changes have created a notable shift in sentiment regarding the price trajectory of crypto assets such as Hyperliquid. The market pricing indicates a potential decrease in enthusiasm for Hyperliquid reaching $100 by the end of 2026. Current market odds stand at 30.5% for a YES resolution, down from 37% a week ago. This suggests a perception that the tax reform may diminish investor interest, impacting the price outlook negatively.
The broader prediction market landscape reflects similar concerns, as participants adjust their outlook based on anticipated changes in tax treatment. The market response underscores the significance of tax policy as a factor influencing investment decisions and market dynamics.
