As the Pacific hurricane season ramps up, the Atlantic Basin seems to be waking up, but it will have trouble sustaining activity over the next few weeks, as wind shear remains strong over the Caribbean and few tropical waves could survive it. The Eastern Pacific continues as a tropical storm factory, though.
So far, the Eastern Pacific has developed five named tropical systems, all of which have been tropical storms. Although the fifth named storm of the season on average forms by July 23, which means we are ahead of schedule by about nine days, July 15 is on average the date when the second hurricane forms. There is still plenty of time to catch up and likely surpass that average, as the Eastern Pacific is forecast to be very active due to what could be the strongest El Niño ever. NOAA has forecast up to 22 named systems this season in the Eastern Pacific. If this materializes, the 2026 season could tie 1985 and 2015 for second place for the most named systems on record for this region, behind only the 27 named systems recorded in 1992.
For reference, the average Pacific hurricane season between 1991 and 2020 contained about 15 named storms, eight hurricanes, and four major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher), according to NOAA.
