While most of crypto was having a rough quarter, prediction markets were quietly posting their best numbers ever. CoinGecko’s 2026 Q2 Crypto Industry Report, released July 16, puts prediction market notional volume at $113.8B for the quarter, a 48.7% jump from Q1. That kind of growth, in a market that was otherwise shrinking, is the sort of thing that makes you do a double take.
For context: the total crypto market cap fell 12.6% to $2.1 trillion over the same period. CEX spot trading dropped 27.9% to $1.95 trillion. Perpetual futures volume slid 10% to $12.7 trillion. Even stablecoins, which have been on a relentless growth streak, saw their first market cap decline since Q3 2023, settling at $305.1B, down 1.6%. Everything was contracting. Prediction markets went the other direction.
Polymarket still dominates, but Kalshi is moving up
Polymarket remains the undisputed heavyweight in political prediction trading, accounting for roughly 97% of that segment’s volume in Q2. Kalshi, meanwhile, is carving out its own territory. The platform gained meaningful traction in sports betting and is capturing a larger slice of overall prediction volume. Kalshi’s approach, operating as a regulated exchange in the US, gives it a different risk profile for institutional and retail participants who are wary of less regulated alternatives.
