Wheat production could be impacted by the climate this year, with El Nino beginning to impact weather in the country, experts said at a wheat conclave last week. “Delayed harvest of kharif crops is on the cards. This could delay sowing of wheat, and the climate may come into play,” said Gaurav Anand, General Manager and Head, Grains Business, ITC Limited Agri Business Division. He was addressing the “Global wheat markets, policy, weather and price risk” session at the Wheat Products Promotion Society CEO Conclave in Varanasi, Uttar Pradesh. However, Jatin Singh, founder and managing director of Skymet, said the situation was bad for the south-west monsoon and by September, enough damage would have been done.Drought yearThis year may be one of drought, though the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has stopped declaring drought since 2016. However, the silver lining could be the positive Indian Ocean Dipole, which could bring good rains during September-October. However, he did not rule out damage to the crops since the monsoon could be affected by the time the IOD emerges.Somnath Chatterjee, executive vice-president and head - procurement and logistics, ITC Food Division, said the wheat market is facing a volatile scenario due to the geopolitical crisis in West Asia and fears over El Nino. Gaurav Jain, co-founder and director of Agpulse Analytics, said nations are increasing food production during war, though production is down in some countries in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region.El Nino worryThe current El Nino weather is a worry and could impact winter crop production this year. “Rabi crops may be at risk,” he said.Nations, including India and China, that witnessed good demand for wheat have increased wheat production to 170 million tonnes (mt) currently from 150 million tonnes earlier, said Jain. Though the world is going through a tough time due to the Iran war and the current El Nino weather, the wheat market is well supplied across the globe, experts said at a wheat conclave last week.Rory Deverell, owner and principal consultant at Black Silo Commodity Consulting, Ireland, said growth in market supply is the story of the season. The futures market is not showing any rise in prices for the July-September period. “There is plenty of wheat in the Black Sea region, which is anchoring supplies. There is no chance of any significant rise in wheat prices,” he said.Wheat export as feedCesar Soares, global strategic development lead, McDonald Pelz, said India cannot compete with Russian or Black Sea region wheat on the price front. India should go for value addition in wheat.In another session, “Procurement, Trade, Storage, Supply Chain and Food Security” at the conclave, organised by WPPS in association with the UP Roller Flour Millers Association, Major Rajiv Yadav, Director and CEO of Rajshubh Agri LLP, wondered why wheat from India was being exported as feed wheat. Calling for payment of the minimum support price (MSP) based on wheat’s protein content, he sought hedging options in wheat to facilitate price discovery. He called for increased funding for agricultural research and development.Ashish Bhatnagar, director and head of procurement, Bimboo Bakeries India Pvt Ltd, regretted the lack of hedging in wheat. Ruling low offseasonKhalid Khan, vice-president and head - procurement and supply chain, ITC Ltd Agri business division, called for transparency in the procurement of wheat. Anand Chandra, co-founder and COO of Arya.ag, said wheat prices are now tending to rule low during off-season while rising during peak arrivals. This was due to a rush from all stakeholders to procure wheat.Sahil Sethi, trader, Grain -India, Louis Dreyfus Company, said logistics has become key to trade, particularly wheat. Published on July 16, 2026