Stripe and private equity firm Advent International have lobbed a $53 billion takeover bid at PayPal, offering $60.50 per share. Shareholders, led vocally by Michael Burry, think the price is insulting. Prediction markets think it’s happening regardless.
On Polymarket, the probability of the deal closing has climbed to roughly 80%. The offer represents a 28% premium over PayPal’s last closing price of $47.37, which sounds generous until you remember this is a company that traded above $300 at its pandemic peak.
The bid and the backlash
Reuters reported on July 15, 2026 that Stripe and Advent had submitted a joint takeover proposal backed by approximately $50 billion in bank financing. PayPal shares surged between 13% and 19% in early trading on the news.
Burry, the “Big Short” investor, estimated PayPal’s intrinsic value between $75 and $115 per share. His best guess sits around $100, which would imply the Stripe-Advent consortium is trying to buy the company at roughly 60 cents on the dollar. He confirmed he’s holding his shares and not tendering into the offer.
