William Blair cut its Coinbase revenue estimates by 12% for 2026 and 13% for 2027, chopped EBITDA projections by a full 34% for both years, and then turned around and reiterated its Outperform rating on the stock.
The numbers behind the downgrade
William Blair initiated coverage on Coinbase with an Outperform rating back in June 2025. Revenue expectations for 2026 came down 12%. For 2027, they dropped 13%.
The EBITDA cuts are even more striking. A 34% reduction for both years signals that the firm’s original thesis on trading volume recovery was too aggressive. Coinbase’s last twelve-month EBITDA sits at roughly $1.00 billion, and William Blair now expects that figure to trough in the second half of 2026 before rebounding the following year.
Coinbase shares are trading at $161.50, which represents a 58% decline over the past year.
