The U.S. Congress is reportedly nearing the passage of new sanctions against Russia in response to its ongoing military actions in Ukraine, according to a report from Punchbowl News. The legislative measures aim to intensify pressure on Moscow by targeting the country’s oil and gas sectors, which are crucial to funding its military operations. This development occurs against the backdrop of continued hostilities, with Russia maintaining its occupation of approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory. The potential for increased U.S. sanctions reflects a broader escalation in international efforts to restrain Moscow’s actions, despite some resistance from within the U.S. Senate and the White House.
The market for a ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine by the end of 2026 has shown a decrease in confidence, as reflected in the latest pricing. This market has seen a decline in the probability of a ceasefire, with the December 31, 2026 sub-market currently priced at a 39% likelihood for a YES resolution, down from 40% a week ago. This trend suggests that market participants perceive the new legislative actions as potentially extending the conflict, thus diminishing the prospects for a ceasefire agreement within the specified timeframe.
