Jul 15, 2026 – 3.47pmLabor and the Coalition could each be reduced to just 25 seats in the Victorian parliament while One Nation could pick up as many as 19 if a state election were held today, underscoring the seismic shift in politics ahead of the November poll.That is the worst-case scenario for the major parties, according to a large-scale analysis of voter intentions by RedBridge and commissioned by the Victorian Trades Hall Council, and which has been leaked to The Australian Financial Review. Subscribe to gift this articleGift 5 articles to anyone you choose each month when you subscribe.Subscribe nowAlready a subscriber? Fetching latest articles