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The ANC’s efforts to recover from its historic defeat in KwaZulu-Natal in the 2024 general election were dealt a major blow on Monday when former eThekwini mayor Zandile Gumede defected to the MK party.The ANC removed Gumede as eThekwini mayor in 2019 after her arrest in connection with a R320m Durban solid waste tender. She and 21 co-accused remain on trial in the Durban high court on charges including fraud, corruption, money-laundering and racketeering linked to the contract. Gumede, an important ally of MK leader Jacob Zuma during his presidency of the ANC and the country, has pleaded not guilty and is on R50,000 bail.She enjoys wide support in the province, and her move to MK raises the stakes for the ANC ahead of the municipal elections on November 4. Though her legal woes continue to dog her political career, she is still a crowd puller in the province and could be a big loss for the ANC. It is an even bigger catch for MK, which garnered the most votes in KwaZulu-Natal in 2024 only to lose the provincial leadership to a coalition of the ANC, DA, IFP and the National Freedom Party (NFP).The ANC in the province played down Gumede’s defection, but analysts say the move is another indication of the party’s weakening support in the province. In the 2024 elections, MK won 37 seats in the 80-member KwaZulu-Natal provincial legislature, making it the largest party in the province. The ANC secured 14 seats, while the DA, IFP and NFP won 11, 15 and one seat, respectively. Read: NEWS ANALYSIS | Ramaphosa reshuffle driven by DA review, not ANC overhaulGumede, a former ANC eThekwini regional chair and one of the party’s most influential leaders in KwaZulu-Natal, was unveiled on Monday as MK’s deputy provincial convenor, making her one of the highest-profile ANC figures to defect to Zuma’s party since its formation.Political analysts on Tuesday said Gumede could be followed by other senior ANC members unhappy about the party’s direction.Prof Ntsikelelo Breakfast said her defection reflected broader political realignments in the ANC’s former radical economic transformation faction, many of whom gravitated towards MK after internal defeats at successive ANC elective conferences.“This is a loss to the ANC, but a gain for uMkhonto weSizwe because she does have a link with the grassroots and she’s going to assist the party to garner more votes and possibly have an upward electoral trajectory,” he said.Breakfast said the timing of Gumede’s announcement, less than four months before the local government elections, was significant.“I don’t think she’s the last one to be announced as jumping ship,” he said. “You don’t announce all your potential new members at once. You want to do it bit by bit so that psychologically you can deal with your opponent. It also does something to the voters when they see that the party they may be voting for is losing members.“I think she might have been involved behind closed doors, but because elections are just around the corner she’s being unveiled,” Breakfast added.He said reports suggesting the ANC’s support had continued to weaken in KwaZulu-Natal were plausible given Zuma’s enduring popularity in the province. “It’s quite obvious that the ANC is on a downward electoral trajectory because the personality of Zuma is very strong there,” he said. “The explanation that the party [the ANC] is sitting at 7% [support] is not far-fetched. It’s quite possible.”ANC KwaZulu-Natal spokesperson Sifiso Sonjica declined to comment on Gumede’s departure.“The ANC in KwaZulu-Natal has no business discussing members of other political parties,” Sonjica said. “We are focused on renewing and rebuilding the ANC in the province. It is our considered view that a renewed ANC will be more appealing to the general public and voters.”In another gain for MK on Tuesday, Inkosi Phathisizwe Chiliza was appointed traditional prime minister of the Zulu nation by King Misuzulu kaZwelithini after the dismissal of Thulasizwe Buthelezi. Chiliza is MK’s leader in the KwaZulu-Natal legislature and was the party’s candidate for provincial premier in 2024.The traditional prime minister serves as the Zulu king’s principal adviser on customary matters and oversees the administration of the royal household. While the office is a traditional role rather than a political one, Chiliza’s appointment adds to MK’s growing prominence in KwaZulu-Natal.A survey conducted by Victory Research for the Social Research Foundation and The Common Sense between February and March found that only 8% of registered voters in eThekwini would support the ANC if a local government election were held at the time of the poll. MK was projected to receive 44% support, followed by the DA with 28% and the IFP with 18%. The survey sampled 503 registered voters in eThekwini and had a margin of error of 4.4%.Elections analyst Wayne Sussman said the ANC had shown signs of recovery in by-elections since 2024 but remained significantly weaker than it had been during the 2021 local government elections.He said the party was likely to lose hundreds of councillors, if not more, in the November local government elections.“The question is, can they keep it to below a loss of 150 councillors or could it exceed 450 councillors? The big prizes from the ANC for MK would be eThekwini, Msunduzi and Ray Nkonyeni [Port Shepstone],” he said.Reuters
