https://www.atlasobscura.com/articles/red-sea-ocean-geology
An Iranian plane’s landing in Houthi-controlled Sanaa on July 4 has raised concerns about Tehran’s strategic intentions in the Red Sea region. The incident, involving a Mahan Air flight, reportedly carried Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) personnel and military equipment, potentially fueling a renewed Houthi capacity to disrupt maritime traffic at the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. This development could enhance Iran’s influence over critical shipping routes, alongside the already volatile Strait of Hormuz. Market participants appear to interpret these actions as possibly increasing the likelihood of Houthi-led disruptions in the region.
Current market data reflects a decrease in the likelihood of an immediate Houthi attack on shipping by July 17, with odds at 5.3%, down from 17% a day ago. However, the probability increases for later dates, with a 32% chance by July 31 and 53.5% by August 31. This suggests that while immediate action is viewed as less likely, the potential for future escalation remains significant. The involvement of IRGC experts and materials indicates Iran’s commitment to strengthening Houthi capabilities, which could impact global oil trade if maritime routes are disrupted.
