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A plunge in iron ore production saw South Africa’s monthly mining output fall for the first time in six months in May, according to the latest Stats SA data.Production in the mining sector was 5.4% lower than it was a year ago, dropping 5.2% on a monthly basis ― its biggest dip since November 2025. This followed an 8% year-on-year increase in April.The biggest driver was iron ore, whose output fell by 12.7% year on year, shaving 2.1 percentage points off the month’s headline figure.The data is consistent with the tough market conditions, slimmer margins and investor uncertainty that has dealt a blow to iron ore miners this year.Shares in Kumba, South Africa’s biggest producer, have lost nearly a fifth of their value since December as inflation, trade uncertainty and surplus supply keep the sector under pressure.Rising fuel prices and geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the war in Iran have made it more expensive to run machinery and get ore out of the ports while iron ore supplies already exceeded global demand, keeping prices low.In its most recent annual report, Kumba listed geopolitical uncertainty as the primary risk to its business, warning that it expected price pressures to persist this year.More broadly, the price of iron ore, used to make steel, is closely tied to the health of the global economy, whose outlook has been hurt by trade disruptions and tariffs.Demand from China has thus come under pressure, against the backdrop of an already sluggish property and construction sector in recent years. China, by far the world’s biggest buyer of iron ore, is responsible for more than half of Kumba’s export sales.On a seasonally adjusted basis, production in the mining sector was down 1.7% year on year in the three months to end-May, with manganese ore and coal among the biggest drivers.Fortunately, elevated platinum group metal (PGM) prices gave the sector a lifeline. PGM sales were up more than 70% year on year in May, despite production volumes being 4.4% lower.Sales of gold, meanwhile, rose 7.1% while coal sales rose 8.5%. As a result, overall mineral sales were 13.9% higher in May.
