ANALYSIS — Twenty months down and less than four months to go, you’d think there would be more clarity in the fight for the Senate. But Republicans only have a narrow advantage and, if history is a guide, control of the chamber will likely remain up for grabs all the way to November.
President Donald Trump’s underwhelming job approval rating (40 percent approve, 57 percent disapprove in Nate Silver’s latest national average) has expanded the Senate battleground to include GOP-leaning states such as Alaska, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, Texas and South Carolina, which wouldn’t be competitive under normal political conditions.
And yet a Democratic takeover of the Senate is far from guaranteed. There are no easy pickups for either party, unlike previous cycles such as 2010, when GOP Gov. John Hoeven of North Dakota was well positioned to win retiring Democratic Sen. Byron L. Dorgan’s seat.
This cycle, every battleground race looks like a slog. Democrats’ best pickup opportunities are in a swing state where they’ve won just one Senate race this century (North Carolina) and in a Democratic-leaning state against one of the GOP’s most battle-tested incumbents (Susan Collins in Maine). Democrats also have to worry about holding a trio of their own vulnerable seats — in Georgia, Michigan and New Hampshire.
