Small business owners in the US just got a lot more cheerful. The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index climbed to 97.4 in June, up from 95.3 in May, comfortably beating consensus forecasts of roughly 95.7.
The numbers behind the bounce
The 2.1-point jump is notable because it reverses what had been a worrying slide. May’s reading of 95.3 represented the index’s lowest mark since October 2024, driven largely by concerns about fuel price volatility and taxes, according to NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg.
June’s rebound puts the index much closer to its long-term historical average of approximately 98. For context, the all-time high was 108.8, set back in August 2018. The record low sits at 80.1, recorded in April 1980.
The survey, released on July 14, captures sentiment across several critical dimensions: hiring plans, capital expenditures, inventory decisions, and general economic expectations.
