Iran has launched missile strikes targeting Jordan, followed by an appeal to the Jordanian populace, according to reports from @ynetnews. This action marks a significant escalation in the ongoing 2026 Iran war, which resumed after a failed ceasefire in April. The strikes are reportedly in retaliation for Jordan hosting U.S. military forces, despite Jordan’s official stance of neutrality in the conflict. Iran’s actions appear to be aimed at both military infrastructure and the political relationship between Jordan and the U.S.
In the prediction markets, this development has led to a notable decrease in the likelihood of a U.S.-Iran deal being reached in 2026. The probability of Iran Reconstruction Funding being included in such a deal has dropped significantly, reflecting increased regional tensions and the challenge of reaching diplomatic agreements amid escalating military actions. The market for a U.S.-Iran deal in 2026 now shows a 26% likelihood of including reconstruction funding, down from previous levels.
The situation also affects related markets concerning potential Israeli military actions. The probability of Israel striking multiple countries in 2026 is currently at 50% for at least four countries, as regional instability continues to play a significant role in market assessments.
