ASML, the Dutch company that holds a near-monopoly on the machines needed to manufacture advanced semiconductors, is preparing to address two of the most consequential forces shaping the chip industry: surging AI-driven demand and tightening US export controls on China. The company’s Q2 2026 earnings report, expected around July 15, arrives at a moment when both forces are pulling the semiconductor supply chain in opposite directions.
ASML is the only company on Earth that makes extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machines, the tools required to produce the most advanced chips powering everything from AI data centers to next-generation smartphones.
China’s shrinking slice of the pie
The most striking number heading into the earnings call is this: China’s share of ASML’s system sales plummeted from 36% in Q4 2025 to just 19% in Q1 2026. China accounted for roughly 33% of ASML’s total revenue across all of 2025. The company now expects the region to hover around 20% for the full year 2026 under current geopolitical conditions.
The MATCH Act, a piece of US legislation currently working its way through Congress, aims to tighten restrictions specifically on ASML’s deep ultraviolet (DUV) tools and related services destined for China. DUV machines are less advanced than EUV systems but still critical for producing a wide range of semiconductors.
