With two heavyweight semi-finals on the horizon, the possibility of penalties deciding who reaches the World Cup final cannot be ignored. History, recent form and even this tournament’s statistics all point towards a spot-kick becoming a decisive factor, as Spain face France and England meet Argentina.Few international fixtures carry as much penalty shootout baggage as England against Argentina.The most famous such meeting came at the 1998 World Cup, when England were knocked out on penalties after David Beckham’s first-half red card in Saint-Étienne. Four years later Beckham gained a measure of revenge, converting the only goal from the penalty spot as England beat Argentina 1-0 at the 2002 World Cup.Penalty drama could again be central this time around.England captain Harry Kane has already scored twice from the spot at this tournament, more than any other player. By contrast, Argentina talisman Lionel Messi has endured a difficult campaign from 12 yards, failing to convert two penalties.Argentina have been awarded three penalties during the tournament, with Lautaro Martínez converting the other against Jordan.
Argentina — who became world champions in 2022 via a shootout — are also no strangers to extended knockout ties at this tournament. Two of their knockout matches have already gone beyond 90 minutes, overcoming Cape Verde in extra time before beating Switzerland after another marathon encounter. England, meanwhile, needed extra time to get past Norway.With fatigue likely to play a role deep into the tournament, another match stretching all the way to penalties would hardly be a surprise.Bookmakers certainly believe it’s a realistic outcome. England or Argentina to win on penalties is priced at 13/2 if selecting the match winner, while either semi-final to be decided by a shootout is available at around 3/1.Kylian Mbappé was unsuccessful from the spot in the quarterfinal match between France and Morocco. (Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)Spain’s semi-final with France is also a game where both nations have their own reasons to view a shootout with caution.For Spain, penalties have been nothing short of a World Cup nightmare. They possess one of the worst penalty shootout records in World Cup history, losing four of their five shootouts — a record matched only by the Netherlands.Their first experience came in the 1986 quarter-finals against Belgium, in a 5-4 defeat. Spain finally won their first World Cup shootout in 2002, edging past the Republic of Ireland, but such success proved short-lived.Later in the same tournament, Spain were eliminated by hosts South Korea on penalties — before suffering further shootout exits against Russia in the last 16 of the 2018 World Cup and then Morocco at the same stage in Qatar four years later.The defeat to Morocco was particularly painful, with Spain failing to score any of their three penalties.Spain are yet to be awarded a penalty during this World Cup. Mikel Oyarzabal is expected to be first-choice taker should one arrive, although Lamine Yamal has also been mentioned as a possible option.
