Iranian officials have engaged in meetings with Hezbollah and Hamas leaders during the funeral week of the late Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. These meetings, involving Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, occurred in Tehran and indicate Iran’s aim to maintain its influence over its proxy organizations amidst a leadership transition to Mojtaba Khamenei. The timing of these discussions underscores Iran’s strategic intentions to consolidate power in the Axis of Resistance despite the volatile regional environment marked by recent US-Iran tensions and military activities.
The meetings come in the aftermath of the collapse of the Islamabad Memorandum and the expiration of a funeral truce, which resulted in a resurgence of hostilities, including US strikes on Iranian targets and Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz. The presence of high-level proxy leaders at the funeral suggests Iran’s determination to project strength and continuity in its regional alliances, even as the country’s leadership faces significant challenges.
The prediction markets are reflecting mixed indicators regarding the stability of Iran’s leadership by the end of 2026. Current pricing suggests a moderate decrease in confidence in the leadership’s continuity, with Mojtaba Khamenei currently having an 80% chance of remaining as head of state by the year’s end. However, the broader geopolitical context and internal dynamics could affect these probabilities as the year progresses.
