The UK government has identified a series of arson and vandalism attacks on Jewish sites in Britain as the work of a proxy group backed by Iran. In response, the UK has announced bans on the Islamic Movement of the Companions of the Right (IMCR) and Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). This move aligns with escalating international pressure on Iran over its use of proxy groups for hostile activities, including suppressing domestic protests and supporting Russia’s military actions in Ukraine. The decision follows similar measures by the EU, which designated the IRGC as a terrorist organization earlier this year.
In the prediction markets, this development is seen as potentially increasing the likelihood of instability within Iran’s regime. The identification of Iranian-backed groups involved in these attacks suggests heightened unrest, which could contribute to scenarios of regime change. The market reflecting the probability of the Iranian regime falling by the end of 2026 has seen a slight increase, now pricing an 8.5% chance of such an event. Meanwhile, another market assessing the possibility of regime collapse by September 30, 2026, shows a modest rise to a 3.1% likelihood.
