If you think our public finances are in a mess now, they will, on present trends, become much worse in the months and years ahead.
That was the bleak message from the Office for Budget Responsibility last week and it is the harsh reality that will confront Andy Burnham on taking office this month. I suspect he has zero idea of what will hit him.
The immediate problem is that borrowing is already way over target in this financial year, with the deficit 20 per cent higher than the OBR had projected.
So unless things improve, he and his Chancellor will have to make some cuts in spending and increase taxation in the autumn Budget just to get back to the plan Rachel Reeves has set out.
But the real problem is the longer-term outlook. If he manages to last another three years – the rest of this parliament – he will have to confront that.
