Iranian authorities have directed pro-government street gatherings to persist until Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei orders them to cease, highlighting the regime’s strategy to maintain public unity amid ongoing conflict with the United States and Israel. This directive comes as part of Iran’s efforts to project strength following renewed hostilities over control of the Strait of Hormuz. The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) is actively involved in orchestrating these demonstrations to reinforce regime stability while Khamenei, who has not appeared publicly for nearly six weeks, reportedly recovers from injuries sustained in a February attack.
Markets appear to have interpreted this development as indicative of continued leadership by Mojtaba Khamenei, despite his absence from public view. This interpretation is reflected in the pricing of prediction markets concerning Iran’s leadership status by the end of 2026. The market for whether there will be no head of state at the year’s end shows a 78.6% probability of a YES resolution, slightly down from 83% earlier. This suggests that while Khamenei’s prolonged absence raises questions, the regime’s actions are consistent with a maintained leadership structure.
