Julian Alvarez is in Argentina’s starting lineup for their World Cup quarterfinal against Switzerland, and if you’re wondering why a crypto publication cares about a soccer match, the answer is sitting on Polymarket.
Prediction markets had been pricing Alvarez’s starting odds at 76-80% heading into the July 11 fixture at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City. The 26-year-old’s inclusion was far from guaranteed given his recovery from an ankle injury and competition from Lautaro Martinez. But the prediction markets nailed it.
The prediction market angle
Platforms like Polymarket and Coinbase have been hosting prediction markets around World Cup outcomes, including granular questions like individual player starting status. Alvarez’s selection became one of those micro-markets that drew meaningful trading volume.
The 76-80% probability range for Alvarez’s start reflected a market that understood the tactical calculus. Coach Lionel Scaloni needed his most dynamic attacking option against a well-organized Swiss defense, even if Alvarez wasn’t at full fitness. The market got it right.
