The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index just posted its worst reading in roughly eight decades of existence, and now the university finds itself doing something it probably never expected: playing defense on the credibility of its own thermometer.
The Index of Consumer Sentiment cratered to 44.8 in May 2026, a record low since the gauge started tracking household confidence back in the 1940s. That preliminary number of 48.2 was already ugly. The final print was worse.
What the critics are saying
The scrutiny centers on methodology. Critics have zeroed in on the survey’s transition from phone-based interviews to online formats that began in 2024.
The university itself has documented that switching to web-based surveys can reduce sentiment readings by approximately 8.9 points compared to phone methods. That’s a gap wide enough to make the difference between “consumers are nervous” and “consumers are in full bunker mode.”
