Bernstein just told Wall Street that gold isn’t done climbing. In a research note dated July 9, the firm raised its full-year 2026 gold price target to $4,533 per ounce, with a second-half target of $4,375. The catalyst: a Federal Reserve that appears content to sit on its hands rather than aggressively hike rates.
The revision comes after gold took investors on a stomach-churning ride through Q2. Prices slid from roughly $4,650 per ounce in early Q2 to around $4,000 by late in the quarter. That’s a correction of about 14% peak to trough.
What’s driving the call
The culprit behind gold’s Q2 selloff was straightforward: real interest rates climbed from 2.00% to 2.28% during the quarter. Gold and real yields have an inverse relationship. When the return on risk-free government bonds goes up in inflation-adjusted terms, the opportunity cost of holding a shiny rock that pays no yield also goes up.
But Bernstein’s analysts see that headwind fading. The firm expects the Fed to implement “no hikes or only 1-2 hikes” over the next 12 months, a stance that aligns with President Donald Trump’s publicly stated preference for stable rates.
