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Imagine watching an NBA basketball game, and LeBron James is just lighting it up. He’s made six shots in a row. The game is close. And LeBron is clearly lining up to take another jump shot.

What are the odds he makes it?

In basketball, players and coaches often talk about the “hot hand.” The idea is simple: If someone has made several shots in a row, folks believe he has a greater chance of making the next one.

Sometimes, that instinct may be right.