While most of crypto Twitter obsesses over where Bitcoin’s price might bottom out, Bitwise Asset Management is making a different argument: stop worrying about the floor and start thinking about the ceiling.
Matt Hougan, Bitwise’s chief investment officer, has been pushing this thesis through mid-2026, contending that whether Bitcoin settles at $40,000 or $60,000 in a downturn matters far less than its potential to reach $100K, $200K, or even $1 million over the long term.
The floor is lava, but it keeps moving up
Bitwise’s on-chain analysis earlier this year identified a realized price around $54K and a true market mean of approximately $79K. Realized price is the average cost basis of all Bitcoin holders, and it acts as a psychological and financial floor because most holders are unlikely to sell below what they paid.
Bottom projections from other major firms reinforce this picture. Galaxy and Standard Chartered have placed their estimates for Bitcoin’s potential trough somewhere between $43,000 and $59,000.
