Mexico just posted its coolest inflation reading in over five years, and it wasn’t even close to what analysts expected. The annual rate dropped to 3.55% in the first half of June, well below the 3.77% consensus estimate, according to data released by INEGI on June 24.
For context, this is a country that was running at 4.45% as recently as April. That kind of drop in two months doesn’t happen quietly.
The numbers tell a clear story
The deceleration has been swift and consistent. From 4.45% in April to 3.94% in May to 3.55% now, Mexico’s inflation trajectory looks like a ski slope. The primary driver behind the drop: softer non-core prices, particularly in the energy sector, which took a significant chunk out of the headline figure.
Core inflation, which strips out volatile items like food and energy, also moved in the right direction. It eased to 4.12% from 4.26% the prior period. That’s still above Banxico’s 3% target, but the direction of travel is what matters here.
