The Federal Reserve is about to pull back the curtain on what was really said behind closed doors during the June 16-17 FOMC meeting. The minutes, scheduled for release on July 8 at 2:00 p.m. ET, are expected to reveal internal deliberations that leaned more hawkish than the Committee’s public-facing statement suggested.
The Fed held the federal funds rate steady at 3.5%-3.75% at that meeting. But the updated projections indicated at least one 25 basis point rate hike before the end of 2026. That’s a meaningful pivot from an environment where most investors had been pricing in further cuts.
Warsh’s debut and the hawkish undercurrent
The June meeting was notable for another reason. It was Kevin Warsh’s first as Fed Chair, following his swearing-in on May 22. Warsh did not submit a personal dot-plot projection during his inaugural meeting, leaving a deliberate blank space for analysts to fill with speculation.
Market analysts anticipate the minutes will show that Committee members spent considerable time debating inflation risks, which were noted to be near multi-year highs in the updated projections.
