Codelco, the Chilean state-owned behemoth that produces more copper than any other company on the planet, is under review at a moment when the world has never needed the red metal more. An internal audit recently revealed that the company overstated its 2025 production by roughly 27,000 tonnes, trimming what was already a modest output figure and raising serious governance questions about the reliability of its forward estimates.
The adjusted output of approximately 1.33 million metric tons marks Codelco’s lowest production level in 27 years.
A deficit nobody can afford
J.P. Morgan projects the global refined copper market will face a deficit of 330,000 tonnes by 2026. That gap is being driven by the same forces that dominate every infrastructure conversation right now: power grid expansion, electric vehicle manufacturing, and the insatiable electricity appetite of AI data centers.
Meanwhile, Chilean copper output fell approximately 6% year-over-year in the first quarter of 2026, with Codelco’s struggles bearing significant responsibility for the decline. The company is contending with geological challenges at its legacy mines and infrastructure that, in some cases, dates back decades.
