When two of Wall Street’s most powerful banks can’t agree on what a company is worth, and the gap between their estimates stretches to roughly $1 trillion, investors should probably pay attention.
SpaceX’s post-IPO quiet period ended in early July, unleashing a flood of analyst reports from the underwriters who shepherded the largest public offering in history. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, the two lead underwriters, published their inaugural coverage notes within days of each other.
The numbers that don’t add up
Goldman Sachs projects SpaceX will generate $474 billion in total revenue by 2030. Morgan Stanley pegs that figure at $330 billion. That’s a $144 billion disagreement on a four-year outlook.
The core of the disagreement sits squarely on AI. Goldman attributes $322 billion of its 2030 revenue estimate to AI operations, while Morgan Stanley sees that segment contributing $190 billion. A $132 billion gap in a single revenue line item.
