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The United States men’s national soccer team (USMNT) was eliminated from the 2026 FIFA World Cup after a 3-1 defeat by Belgium in the Round of 16. The match, held in Seattle, was overshadowed by a controversy surrounding a red card given to USMNT striker Folarin Balogun during a previous game. The red card, which initially led to an automatic suspension, was lifted by FIFA following a request from U.S. President Donald Trump to FIFA President Gianni Infantino. This decision allowed Balogun to play against Belgium, prompting criticism from UEFA over perceived political interference.
Markets quickly adjusted their expectations following the USA’s early exit. The probability of the USA being eliminated in the Round of 16 surged to 100% after the match, reflecting the definitive result. Prior to this, the market had seen fluctuating odds due to the uncertainty surrounding Balogun’s eligibility and the impact of Trump’s intervention.
The developments surrounding the match and the U.S. team’s elimination appear to have had a significant impact on the prediction markets. Observers noted a marked decline in optimism about the USA advancing further in the tournament, consistent with the outcome of their elimination in the Round of 16.
