The Bureau of Economic Analysis is updating the methodology behind the Personal Consumption Expenditures price index, the Federal Reserve’s go-to inflation measure, and the revised figures are expected to paint a slightly rosier picture when they land on September 30, 2026.
Analysts estimate the changes will shave roughly 0.2 percentage points off core PCE inflation readings.
What’s actually changing
The BEA announced the updates in late June 2026, targeting how prices are calculated in three specific categories: portfolio management and investment advice services, computer software and accessories, and legal services.
The portfolio management piece is the most interesting. Prior Federal Reserve research identified distortions in how these services were being priced, essentially tying them too closely to stock market performance. When equities rip higher, portfolio management fees naturally inflate in dollar terms, even if the actual service being provided hasn’t changed. That made inflation look hotter than it arguably was.
