Speculative traders have piled into the US dollar at a pace not seen in over a decade. Net long positions reached $27.8 billion as of June 9, marking the highest level since February 2025 and capping 13 consecutive weeks of bullish dollar bets according to CFTC data.
What’s driving the dollar surge
The catalyst is familiar but no less potent: geopolitical instability. The escalation of Middle East conflict in late February 2026, involving direct actions by the US and Israel against Iran, sent oil prices climbing and investors scrambling for safety.
The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index has risen roughly 1.6% since the onset of the conflict.
The positioning data tells an even more dramatic story. Before the Middle East tensions escalated, traders were sitting on approximately $22 billion in short dollar positions. The swing from $22 billion short to $27.8 billion long represents a nearly $50 billion reversal in sentiment.
