For nearly a year, semiconductor stocks have been eating hyperscaler stocks for breakfast. Since September 2025, the companies making AI chips have dramatically outperformed the companies buying them. Now, according to JPMorgan analysts, that trade may be running out of runway.
The core tension is elegant in its simplicity. Hyperscalers like Microsoft, Amazon, Google, and Meta have been writing enormous checks to semiconductor suppliers for AI infrastructure. Those suppliers have been happily cashing them. But the “check-writers” are getting tired of being on the wrong side of the equation, and they’re doing something about it.
The $800 billion question
Hyperscalers are projected to spend roughly $800 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026. Some forecasts put 2027 spending as high as $1.1 trillion. Those are staggering numbers, and they’ve been a massive tailwind for semiconductor companies that supply the chips, memory, and networking gear powering the AI buildout.
But here’s the thing. That same capital is increasingly flowing toward a strategy designed to cut semiconductor suppliers out of the loop entirely.
