More than half the people who actually draft legislation on Capitol Hill think prediction markets are about to get a regulatory reality check. According to a Punchbowl News Canvass poll conducted on July 5, 2026, 53% of Congressional staffers believe legislation banning insider trading on prediction market platforms for government and military officials is likely to pass. Only 45% called it unlikely.
The Senate unanimously passed S. Res. 708 on April 30, 2026, prohibiting all senators, officers, and staff from trading on prediction market platforms. Over ten bills targeting prediction markets have been introduced in the current 119th Congress, with most focused on preventing the use of material nonpublic information, or MNPI, and enhancing oversight by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
A Defense Department official who knows about a troop deployment betting on geopolitical outcomes, or a congressional aide wagering on whether a bill will pass while watching the vote count in real time, illustrates the potential for abuse. Think of MNPI as the prediction market equivalent of a corporate insider knowing about a merger before it’s announced.
Kalshi and Polymarket both implemented new measures in March 2026 to curb insider trading, following guidance from the CFTC and growing pressure from lawmakers. That pressure came partly from the House Oversight Committee, which investigated prediction market platforms for potential insider trading patterns in May 2026, scrutinizing both Kalshi and Polymarket for whether government-connected traders were exploiting privileged information for profit.
